Vietnam’s 2026 Currency Exchange and Interest Rate Forecasts

Recent developments in Vietnam’s economic landscape indicate a shift in financial pressures on exchange rates and interest rates. While the immediate effects of these pressures have subsided, analysts anticipate ongoing depreciation of the Vietnamese dong in 2026.

On December 10, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a reduction in its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. This marks the third adjustment within the year, highlighting the Fed’s cautious approach as it navigates through uncertain economic conditions.

However, the Fed’s signals suggest a potential halt on further rate cuts, as officials await clearer indications from labor market trends and inflation rates, which are noted to remain “fairly high.” New forecasts indicate that policymakers anticipate only one more 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026.

In the wake of the Fed’s announcements, the USD/VND exchange rates displayed a divergence between formal banking systems and informal markets. In local street markets, the dollar increased by VND 20-30, reaching levels between VND 27,120 and VND 27,180 per U.S. dollar.

The State Bank of Vietnam established the daily reference exchange rate at VND 25,148/USD on the same day, a decrease of 6 VND from the previous day. Given the operational trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate for commercial banks was set at VND 26,405/USD, while the floor rate stood at VND 23,891/USD.

By 11:30 a.m. on Friday, the buying rate at Vietcombank was VND 26,125/USD, and the selling rate was VND 26,405, showing minor reductions of VND 16 and VND 6, respectively, from the previous day. A similar trend was observed at Vietinbank, where rates were VND 26,102 and VND 26,405, reflecting an increase in buying and a slight decrease in selling rates. SeABank reported rates of VND 26,135 for buying and VND 26,405 for selling, with corresponding decreases from previous figures.

Vietcombank, Vietinbank, and SeABank represent key players in Vietnam’s banking sector, with the former two being state-controlled institutions among the country’s top four banks, while SeABank operates as a private entity. These rates pertain to bank transfers rather than cash transactions.

Moreover, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) saw a continued decline, sitting at 98.33, a factor that also plays into the wider narrative of currency stability.

Analysts have expressed that the Fed’s December 10 rate cut has relieved some pressures within Vietnam’s financial markets, particularly regarding exchange rates and interest rates. Can Van Luc, the chief economist at BIDV and a member of the Prime Minister’s economic advisory council, noted that this decision may mitigate exchange-rate pressures and limit capital outflows.

Luc observed that the VND has faced increased demand this year fueled by a surge in foreign-currency needs. The official dong rate has escalated by about 3.5% year-to-date, while the street rate has swelled nearly 7%. Such rising demand can be traced back to imports, speculation, sovereign debt repayments, and the funding of informal gold imports.

In terms of policy implications for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), Luc suggested that current policy rates are likely to remain stable, aimed at supporting economic growth. He argued that SBV’s policy rates—like refinancing and rediscount rates—have minimal direct effects on deposit and lending markets. Recently rising deposit rates may spur lending rates in specific instances, although the banking system is expected to prioritize maintaining broad lending-rate stability in alignment with governmental directives.

Le Xuan Nghia, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, anticipates only mild depreciation of the VND going forward. He highlighted year-end import demand coupled with ongoing corporate challenges as factors contributing to the rising street-dollar rate. Notably, some banking institutions are offering loans for USD deposits to profit from the interest rate discrepancies between currencies, thereby bolstering USD demand.

Banking expert Nguyen Tri Hieu noted the complexity of simultaneously achieving low inflation, exchange-rate stability, and financial security within Vietnam. As the country pursues GDP growth exceeding 10% in the upcoming year, he believes monetary policy will come under significant scrutiny and pressure.

Forecasts indicate a potential 4-5% weakening of the VND against the dollar in 2026, linked to foreign currency needs for gold imports and ambitious credit growth targets. Financial expert Huynh Trung Minh predicted that the dong will face single-digit depreciation pressures throughout 2026. He suggested that VND interest rates are likely to remain stable or may rise during the first half of the year to protect the currency and control imported inflation.

Minh cautioned that exporters might hold onto dollars for at least 6-9 months, implying that potential home or car buyers should consider securing fixed rates by the end of Q4 2025 or no later than Q1 2026, as funding costs may not stay low beyond mid-2026.

During a conference held by Military Bank (MBBank) on November 7, CEO Pham Nhu Anh remarked on the VND’s depreciation of 3.5% by October, amounting to approximately 6% compared to the previous year. He emphasized limited maneuverability in this context.

“The exchange rate has already reached the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance band. The full-year target for VND depreciation is set at 3-5%, which leaves little room for maneuver,” he commented.