Vietnam’s Economic Resilience Amid Global Uncertainties
By The Investor/VNA
Tue, September 30, 2025 | 10:22 pm GMT+7
Vietnam’s economy is notably distinguished for its resilience, particularly in the face of rising uncertainties and the imposition of high U.S. tariffs. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), solid domestic demand plays a crucial role in upholding economic stability.
Economic Growth Projections
In its recently released September Asian Development Outlook, the ADB has upgraded Vietnam’s economic growth forecast to an impressive 6.7% for 2025, with a subsequent adjustment to 6% for 2026. This indicates a continued positive trajectory, particularly as inflation projections remain slightly lower than previous estimates from April, signaling a robust management of economic variables.
Performance in the First Half of 2025
Vietnam’s economic performance in the first half of 2025 has been nothing short of stellar, with growth accelerating to 7.5% by June—the best half-year performance since 2010. This remarkable growth was primarily driven by supportive government policies and a surge in export orders, particularly ahead of the new U.S. tariffs that came into effect on August 7.
Future Growth and Challenges
Despite these strong figures, the ADB anticipates a slowdown in growth for the latter part of the year due to the impacts of reciprocal tariffs. The ongoing stability in the domestic economy suggests a healthy fundamental structure; however, growth rates are expected to normalize after the impressive first half. The revised inflation forecast positions it at 3.9% for 2025, easing to 3.8% for the following year, reflecting improved control over macroeconomic factors.
Policy Implementation and Structural Reforms
According to Shantanu Chakraborty, the ADB’s country director for Vietnam, better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is critical for maintaining macro-financial stability. He highlighted the importance of regulatory reforms aimed at addressing long-term structural challenges, such as enhancing climate resilience and the efficiency of state-owned enterprises. These reforms are essential for cultivating a balanced growth model and invigorating private sector competitiveness.
Risks to Economic Outlook
Nguyen Ba Hung, principal country economist at ADB Vietnam, noted several external and domestic risks that could potentially hinder economic growth. The reciprocal tariff measures from the U.S. stand out as a main external threat. Furthermore, global uncertainties, including slowing growth in major economies, are likely to dampen the import demand from partner countries, subsequently affecting Vietnam’s robust export activities.
On the domestic front, the initial stages of government reform aimed at enhancing economic conditions may experience adjustments, possibly limiting their effectiveness. Nevertheless, Hung expressed optimism that successful reform measures could lead to superior growth outcomes than currently projected.
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has maintained its policy rate at 4.5% since 2023 while progressively injecting liquidity to ensure market stability. By the end of August 2025, credit growth had reached an impressive 11.8% compared to the previous year, with the central bank’s flexible approach likely to bolster further lending by the year’s end.
However, concerns about asset quality persist, as rising non-performing loans and declining bank profitability may limit the potential for further monetary easing. The SBV’s ongoing interventions have managed to mitigate foreign exchange pressures and facilitate an increase in credit growth.
Government’s Target and Future Aspirations
The Vietnamese government has set an ambitious GDP growth target of between 8.3% to 8.5% for 2025, with aspirations for double-digit growth in the years extending from 2026 to 2030. The Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council considers this target “appropriate,” citing favorable macroeconomic conditions and the ongoing structural reforms.
Global Insights and Adjusted Projections
In a recent country economic update, the World Bank projected that Vietnam’s GDP growth will moderate to 6.6% in 2025. While the strong growth momentum in the first half of the year has been commendable, the coming months are expected to bring a return to more normalized export growth rates. The outlook remains highly contingent upon further developments in global trade dynamics, underscoring the interconnected nature of the global economy.
The nuances of Vietnam’s economic landscape showcase its potential and resilience, painting a vivid picture of a nation adept at navigating the complexities of both domestic stability and global challenges.