In September, major international organizations collectively affirmed Vietnam’s remarkable economic momentum. Though projections for 2025-2026 differ due to cautious assessments of global risks, the prevailing sentiment remains optimistic.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its 2025 growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.7%, pointing to robust recovery in the industrial and construction sectors. Meanwhile, Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has even more positive expectations, raising its forecast to 7.5% and suggesting that Vietnam could achieve sustained long-term growth averaging around 7%, contingent on continued reforms.
On the other hand, more conservative outlooks from the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project growth at 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively, for 2025. The IMF has cautioned that growth may slow to 5.6% in 2026, primarily due to the new tariff policies introduced by the U.S.
Despite the variations in figures, there’s consensus among these institutions that Vietnam possesses strong economic fundamentals to sustain vigorous growth. A significant concern, however, is the recently introduced U.S. tariffs, which impose 20% duties on goods directly imported from Vietnam and 40% on products deemed “transshipped.” This policy, effective from August 7, 2025, raises uncertainties for key export sectors.
The WB estimates that between 1.6% and 10.6% of Vietnamese exports to the U.S. could be impacted if broad interpretations of “transshipment” are adopted. In August, exports to the U.S. already experienced a 2% decline, significantly affecting textiles, machinery, and wood products.
Additional risks arise from potential economic slowdowns in the U.S. and China, Vietnam’s largest trading partners, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions across Europe and the Middle East. UOB has noted that the Vietnamese dong has depreciated by 3.4% against the dollar this year, emphasizing ongoing currency pressure amid considerable interest rate differentials.
However, most international observers regard these challenges as short-term and believe they can be mitigated by Vietnam’s intrinsic resilience, provided macroeconomic stability and flexible policy management are maintained.
Domestic Growth Drivers
Internal factors are significantly buoying Vietnam’s economy. In the first half of 2025, exports surged by 14.2%, and foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursements reached an impressive US$15.4 billion—the highest in five years. Key investments are flowing into high-tech, renewable energy, and manufacturing sectors, particularly from Japan, South Korea, and Europe, which in turn are upgrading domestic production value chains.
Consumer spending is a crucial pillar of the economy, accounting for over 65% of GDP. This sector benefits from controlled inflation, currently around 3.3%, and a considerable recovery in services, retail, tourism, and real estate. Almost 14 million international visitors arrived in Vietnam in the first eight months of 2025, featuring a remarkable increase of nearly 30% year-on-year.
While agriculture constitutes a smaller portion of GDP, it remains pivotal for social stability and food security. Reports, including those from the UK Investor Magazine, highlight Vietnam’s agricultural achievements as a testament to its resilience during economic transformation.
Vietnam’s fiscal health is commendable, with public debt standing below 34% of GDP—well under the 60% threshold, allowing substantial fiscal stimulus opportunities. The government is accelerating infrastructure investments, committing $48 billion across over 250 projects, promising a substantial economic impact.
As for monetary policy, a more accommodative stance is anticipated by year-end, with some banks suggesting potential interest rate cuts to bolster businesses. The IMF has recommended adopting a wider, more flexible exchange rate band to mitigate external pressures while maintaining stability.
International institutions emphasize that if Vietnam continues its institutional reforms, enhances its business environment, and accelerates digital transformation, achieving the long-term growth target of 7% is conceivable. The focus of these reforms should be on boosting domestic business competitiveness, reducing dependency on FDI, and investing in education, particularly within STEM fields and research and development.
With a stellar GDP growth of 7.5% recorded in the first half of 2025 and a strong level of international confidence, the government’s ambitious growth target of 8.3-8.5% for 2025 appears attainable. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB’s Country Director for Vietnam, asserts that effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with addressing structural issues like climate change and energy transition, will enable Vietnam to establish a balanced and sustainable growth model.
With strong international confidence and robust policy management, Vietnam is poised to solidify its position as one of Asia’s fastest-growing and most stable economies.