Vietnam’s Economic Outlook for 2025: A Promising Yet Cautious Forecast
By Tri Duc
Date: Sat, January 18, 2025 | 10:36 AM GMT+7
Vietnam’s projected GDP growth for 2025 is set at an encouraging 6.6%, according to the latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released by the World Bank. This figure marks an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to their June 2024 edition but falls short of the Vietnamese government’s ambitious target of at least 8% for the year.
Insights from Economic Experts
While the World Bank’s forecast is optimistic, many international economic organizations suggest that Vietnam’s growth may not meet the government’s target. The Singaporean bank UOB predicts a growth rate of 7%, while Oxford Economics estimates it at 6.5%. In a similar vein, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) aligns with the World Bank at 6.6%.
Regional Comparisons
Vietnam’s anticipated growth rate stands out in the Asian context, trailing only behind Bhutan and India, both expected to hit 7.2%. According to the World Bank, Vietnam is poised to outshine significant regional players. The projections indicate that the Philippines will achieve 6.1%, Cambodia 5.5%, Indonesia 5.1%, and Thailand a mere 2.9%.
Moving Beyond 2025
Looking further ahead, the World Bank anticipates a slight dip in Vietnam’s GDP growth for 2026, projected at 6.3%—a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the June 2024 forecast. This trend raises questions about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory.
The Global Economic Landscape
On a broader scale, the World Bank projects that the global economy will expand by 2.7% in both 2025 and 2026, mirroring the pace of growth anticipated for 2024. However, this rate is considered underwhelming compared to pre-pandemic levels and is insufficient to tackle pressing issues like poverty alleviation and broader development goals. The bank notes that developing economies, which contribute to 60% of global growth, are expected to end the first quarter of the 21st century with the weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000.
Vietnam’s Recent Economic Performance
In 2024, Vietnam’s GDP grew impressively by 7.09%, exceeding the targets set by the General Statistics Office (GSO). This growth symbolizes resilience in the face of global economic challenges and lays a promising foundation for the years ahead.
As Vietnam positions itself on the path of economic development, the nuances of these growth projections highlight both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. With promising figures from reputable institutions, investors and policymakers are closely watching Vietnam’s next moves.