Vietnam poised to drive ASEAN’s GDP growth at 6.5% in 2025, according to AMRO research unit.

Vietnam’s economy is poised for notable growth in 2025, with expectations that it could achieve an impressive rate of 6.5%. This projection places Vietnam at the forefront of the ASEAN bloc, as reported by the Singapore-based ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

In the January 2025 edition of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) Update, AMRO provided this outlook, adjusting it slightly down from a previous forecast of 6.6% in October 2024. This highlights a dynamic economic environment where growth predictions can be fluid, shaped by both domestic and global factors.

While a robust growth rate of 6.5% is anticipated, it remains below the Vietnamese government’s target, which aims for at least an 8% growth this year. Several international organizations echo similar concerns, forecasting a conservative estimation for Vietnam’s growth in 2025. The World Bank suggests a rate of 6.6%, while the Singaporean bank UOB, Oxford Economics, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) project figures ranging from 6.5% to 7%.

In comparative terms, other ASEAN nations are also projected to witness significant growth in 2025, with the Philippines leading at 6.3%, followed by Cambodia at 5.8% and Indonesia at 5.1%. The collective average growth expectation for the ASEAN bloc stands at 4.8%, showcasing the region’s overall economic resilience.

Additionally, AMRO has revised its projections for Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI), an essential indicator of inflation, raising it to 3.5% for the year, up from a previous estimate of 3.3%. This uptick in inflation suggests a tightening economic scenario that policymakers will need to monitor closely.

On a broader scale, the ASEAN+3 region—which includes China, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea—is projected to grow by 4.2% this year, slightly below the earlier forecast of 4.3%. This highlights the interconnected nature of these economies and the challenges they face from external factors.

AMRO underscores the importance of strong domestic demand and export growth in propelling regional economies forward. However, escalating trade tensions and the potential for increased tariffs loom as potential setbacks that could hinder external demand, impacting the broader economic outlook.

The economic environment for the ASEAN+3 region remains fraught with uncertainties. Factors such as fluctuating trade dynamics, the changing landscape of U.S. monetary policy, and potential policy shifts from a new U.S. administration—including higher tariffs—contribute to a complex and unpredictable economic landscape.