The latest Vietnam 2026 Consumer Outlook from BMI indicates robust growth in household spending, predicting an impressive 7.2% year-over-year increase. This surge will elevate real household expenditures to approximately VND3.95 quadrillion (US$152 billion) at constant 2010 prices, marking a significant rebound from pre-pandemic levels of VND2.77 quadrillion in 2019.
Despite facing global trade challenges, Vietnam’s burgeoning tourism sector is expected to act as a buffer against these economic headwinds. BMI emphasizes that consumer purchasing power will increase, buoyed by stable inflation and a tight labor market that should promote real wage growth.
In terms of inflation, BMI forecasts an average rate of 3.5% for 2026, consistent with projections from 2025. This rate aligns neatly within the government’s target range of 3–5%. Unemployment is expected to remain low, hovering around 2.1%, thereby contributing to the stability of the economy.
As of September 2025, retail activity has shown remarkable resilience, with nominal retail sales soaring nearly 60% above pre-pandemic figures. Real retail sales are reported to be approximately 30% higher than those in 2019, showcasing the robust recovery and growth of the sector.
This upward trend in retail growth is also reflected in the year-over-year increase in nominal sales, which rose 10.4%, while real sales experienced a solid 6.9% growth on a six-month moving average basis.
However, challenges remain on the horizon. BMI has highlighted concerns regarding imported inflation as the Vietnamese dong is predicted to depreciate by approximately 5.5% in 2026. Estimates suggest that the currency will fall from an average of VND25,300 per US dollar in 2025 to around VND26,700, raising the stakes for imported goods and production inputs.
The depreciation of the dong poses a potential risk to domestic price stability, with estimates indicating a slight erosion of household purchasing power. In addition, this currency vulnerability may compel the State Bank of Vietnam to adopt a more cautious approach in its credit-promotion policies.
Vietnamese households are currently enjoying favorable borrowing costs and an expanding credit landscape, with consumer lending skyrocketing tenfold over the past decade to reach around US$150 billion by the end of 2022. This growth equates to approximately 40% of the country’s GDP.
In light of the various global uncertainties—ranging from trade barriers to geopolitical tensions—BMI remains optimistic about the resilience of domestic demand in Vietnam. It stresses that the improving economic outlook will likely encourage consumers to allocate a greater share of their income towards discretionary expenditures.
