Vietnam’s GDP Growth Projections: A Closer Look
By Bach Quang | Fri, July 25, 2025 | 2:51 pm GMT+7
Recently, Standard Chartered revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam in 2025 to 6.1%, a significant reduction from the earlier estimate of 6.7%. This downward adjustment reflects a broader trend observed since the beginning of the year and raises concerns about the country’s economic momentum in the near future.
Economic Slowdown Predicted
According to Standard Chartered, Vietnam’s economic growth is expected to decelerate to 4.9% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, compared to a robust 7.5% in the first half. This expectation highlights a potential slowdown that could affect various sectors across the economy.
Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has adjusted its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.3% for 2025 and 6% for 2026. Both projections fall short of the ambitious target of “at least 8%” set by the National Assembly, underscoring a growing disconnect between governmental aspirations and market realities.
Key Economic Drivers
Despite the downward revisions, several factors are anticipated to stimulate Vietnam’s economic expansion in 2025. Exports remain a vital cog, driven by foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic consumption, and public investment.
In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s GDP growth reached an impressive 7.52%, marking the highest growth rate in 15 years, with the second quarter alone reporting 7.96%. Such numbers highlight the positive trends that have propelled the nation’s economy forward, although concerns remain about sustainability.
Trade Balance and Inflation Insights
Standard Chartered’s latest update indicates a significant trade surplus of $2.8 billion in June 2025, which bolstered the Vietnamese Dong and enhanced the country’s external balances. However, retail sales growth softened to 8.3% year-on-year, pointing toward a potential decline in domestic demand.
Moreover, inflation forecasts have also been revised down to 3.5% from an earlier projection of 3.8%. With inflation currently under 4% year-on-year for the past 11 months, this trend suggests limited room for monetary easing, and policymakers may need to adopt a more neutral stance moving forward.
FDI Trends
Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have shown promising signs of recovery, particularly in the manufacturing and property sectors. For the first half of 2025, disbursed FDI rose by 8.1% year-on-year to $11.7 billion, while pledged FDI surged by 32.6% to $21.5 billion. This financial inflow is critical for sustaining growth, as it fuels domestic production and infrastructure development.
Currency Projections
The financial landscape also sees Standard Chartered raising its USD-VND forecast to 26,300 by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the Singaporean bank UOB has issued projections of 26,400 for Q3 2025 and 26,200 for Q4 2025. These forecasts reflect cautious optimism about the currency’s stability, given the current economic conditions.
Outlook from Economists
Tim Leelahaphan, a senior economist specializing in Vietnam and Thailand for Standard Chartered, emphasizes an encouraging trade outlook backed by solid export performance and a strong recovery in tourism. While some moderation in both external and domestic indicators is expected in the near term, this may present an opportunity for the central bank to rebuild foreign exchange reserves, positioning Vietnam to successfully navigate upcoming challenges.
Government Expectations
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has publicly stated the need for Vietnam to achieve a GDP growth rate of approximately 8.3-8.5% this year. He reassured that concrete figures would be announced to guide target-setting and growth management strategies moving forward.
This proactive stance from the government highlights an ongoing commitment to fostering economic resilience and achieving long-term growth, even amid global uncertainties.
This analysis of Vietnam’s GDP growth prospects encapsulates the challenges and opportunities ahead, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape. The interplay of domestic and international factors will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Vietnam’s economy in the coming years.