Vietnam’s Import-Export and Cargo Throughput Outlook: A Favourable Horizon
Vietnam is poised for a robust period of growth in its import and export activities, along with significant increases in cargo throughput via its seaports. This optimistic forecast is largely anchored by its comparatively lower reciprocal tariff rates against major players like the United States, which stands at 20%, juxtaposed with China’s hefty 55% and India’s 25%. This makes Vietnam’s tariff rate more attractively competitive, positioning the country favourably in the global trade landscape.
The Leveraging of Free Trade Agreements
One of the key advantages for Vietnamese exporters is the country’s extensive network of free trade agreements (FTAs). These agreements facilitate preferential tariffs, enabling exporters to operate with greater flexibility and efficiency. As international markets begin to stabilize and recover from economic downturns, Vietnam’s exporters are finding a fertile ground to expand their reach and optimize their operations.
Shifts in Trade Flows
In light of the geopolitical climate, particularly the high U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, analysts at Shinhan Securities predict significant shifts in trade flows. This transition is expected to increase the activity along intra-Asia and Asia-Europe trade routes. Vietnamese firms are actively diversifying their export markets to lessen dependency on the U.S., thereby strategically positioning themselves to capture market share in emerging regions.
Expansion Strategies by Local Companies
Hanoi-based Hai Minh JSC has recognized these shifts and is taking proactive measures. The company is setting up new agency offices in key markets such as Hong Kong and India, while also planning to launch services on the Ho Chi Minh City–Shanghai–Port Klang route. These strategic decisions highlight the company’s ambition to explore more diverse markets as they adapt to changing global demand.
Similarly, Hai An Transport and Stevedoring JSC is eyeing an expansion of its fleet over the next five years, targeting longer trade routes, including those to the Mediterranean, Europe, and the U.S. West Coast. With plans to build new vessels capable of handling significant cargo volumes, Hai An aims to capitalize on lucrative trade lanes that move nearly 40% of global container traffic.
Revenue Growth in the Logistics Sector
Hai An’s operations currently comprise 17 container vessels with a total capacity of 28,200 TEUs, predominantly serving domestic and intra-Asian routes. Interestingly, the leasing segment of their business has become a major revenue driver—now representing approximately 60% of total earnings. With a strong performance anticipated for the latter half of the year, bolstered by robust freight rates and new service launches, the company’s future looks bright.
Gemadept Corporation (GMD), another important player in the logistics domain, is expected to increase its cargo volume on intra-Asia routes in response to declining U.S.-bound shipments. Analysts from MB Securities anticipate that higher service fees will significantly boost GMD’s business results in the upcoming months.
Navigating Market Dependencies
Vietnam Container Shipping JSC (Vinconship) has managed to dodge heavy reliance on U.S. markets, focusing instead on domestic and intra-Asia routes. With only about 3.9% of its total handling volume constituting goods destined for the U.S., the company is well-prepared with contingency plans designed to mitigate potential tariff impacts.
Furthermore, their strategic investments in Vinaship JSC and Hai An strengthen Vinconship’s profitability, tapping into indirect revenue sources. Both of these partner firms are projected to benefit from consumer behavior changes that see front-loaded shipments as businesses anticipate future tariff implications.
Investment in Sustainability and Growth
Mid-August saw a significant announcement from Viconship and Hai An regarding their new venture, Hai An Green Shipping Lines Co., Ltd., which will see investments of around $180 million in the development of 7,000 TEU container vessels. This highlights a growing trend toward sustainability in logistics operations, reflecting an industry-wide push to adopt greener practices.
Cargo Throughput and Import-Export Performance
In terms of overall performance, Vietnam’s total import-export value reached $514.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting a healthy year-on-year increase of 16.3%. A breakdown shows imports at $252.26 billion and exports climbing to $262.4 billion. Haiphong’s ports alone reported a 7% increase in cargo throughput, reaching 65.5 million tonnes, while the Cai Mep – Thi Vai container ports recorded an impressive 17% surge, managing 5.96 million TEUs.
As Vietnam gears up for the fourth quarter, traditionally viewed as the peak season for retail and import-export activities, this lively pace at the seaports promises to invigorate the maritime transport and logistics sectors even further.
The Stock Market’s Response
The optimism in the logistics sector has been mirrored on the stock market. VSC shares enjoyed a robust rally, recording five consecutive ceiling gains from August 12 to 18, while maritime transport stocks displayed promising upward trends, indicating strong investor confidence in Vietnam’s logistics future.
As stakeholders navigate this changing landscape, the proactive adjustments and robust growth trajectories adopted by Vietnam’s logistics firms underscore a sector brimming with potential, ready to capitalize on the rising demands of global trade.