With AI projected to add $15–16 trillion to global GDP by 2030, the question for Vietnam is whether it can convert current momentum into sustained, economy-wide gains before the frontier shifts again.
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| Ha Bao Tram, associate, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change |
Over the past decade, Vietnam has cultivated one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic digital economies, coinciding perfectly with the foundational shifts towards the 6G era. With nearly universal internet access at 99%, mobile broadband speeds ranking among the world’s top 20, and nationwide 5G deployment covering cities and industrial zones, Vietnam stands at a significant advantage as its digital economy approaches 20% of GDP.
The transition from 5G to AI-driven applications across manufacturing, logistics, urban development, and public services will be pivotal. How Vietnam leverages this 5G phase will dictate its standing when 6G arrives, emphasizing not just access but the transformation towards smart, data-driven economic decision-making.
The convergence of 5G and AI unveils new challenges, particularly related to hardware. AI workloads require specialized chips, while next-generation mobile networks need secure and resilient equipment for real-time processing. Vietnam’s initiative to enhance domestic semiconductor capabilities, led by Viettel’s fabrication efforts, signals not just industrial advancement but a strategic move towards long-term digital resilience.
In the short term, Vietnam may not compete with global semiconductor giants. However, establishing a limited domestic chip production not only mitigates exposure to supply chain disruptions but also strengthens its negotiating position with global suppliers. In a world marked by export controls and geopolitical tension, nations without their hardware capabilities face serious structural disadvantages—higher costs, implementation delays, and diminished control over essential infrastructure.
Moving into the 6G era, anticipated around 2030, will require a proactive stance. Countries lacking such industrial depth risk becoming mere adopters of standards rather than influencers. Vietnam’s current focus areas—industrial 5G, AI-driven public services, and semiconductor production—will be crucial in determining its role within the evolving global tech landscape.
Vietnam’s readiness for AI has significantly improved, positioning it in the top third globally, and making it one of ASEAN’s standout performers. Legislative advances, including the Law on AI and the Law on Digital Technology Industry, reflect a move from experimental initiatives to institutional frameworks that drive growth.
These developments are vital, as regulatory clarity remains a significant barrier to AI investment worldwide. Vietnam’s approach is risk-based and human-centric, aligning broadly with international principles, and emphasizing legal predictability and trust. This positions Vietnam as a credible actor in the global AI regulatory space—a potentially key advantage in attracting quality investments and forging international partnerships.
Despite these advancements, the reality is that AI deployment in Vietnam remains largely fragmented, limited to isolated projects and pilot programs. The pressing challenge ahead is transitioning from a state of AI readiness to widespread economic integration, which is essential for addressing central policy challenges as development progresses.
On a global scale, the development of AI and the emerging landscape of 6G is characterized by fragmentation in standards, governance, and supply chains. Countries that pair credible regulation with large-scale deployment are likely to prosper. Within ASEAN, while Singapore dominates in AI governance, it lacks the necessary scale. Conversely, Vietnam possesses the potential to implement AI and 6G across a vast and diverse economy, spanning industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, urban development, and public services.
To maximize these opportunities, Vietnam should consider a dual-track strategy akin to those employed by leading middle powers. The first priority should be to expand the integration of AI at scale throughout the economy, moving beyond limited pilots toward widespread application in key sectors such as logistics, agriculture, and urban services, utilizing these as test-beds for real-world innovation.
Secondly, engaging in international AI and 6G standard-setting is crucial. The EU’s focus on risk-based governance and secure digital partnerships fits well with Vietnam’s trajectory and can pave the way for substantial, long-term investments.
Finally, Vietnam should position itself as a bridge economy, linking regional supply chains with global governance principles, especially as tensions elevate in areas like China’s swift advancements in AI and 6G technology. The strategic imperative is clear: Vietnam must engage in extensive domestic deployment while simultaneously shaping international standards, to avoid becoming passive consumers of externally defined technologies.