Analyzing the US Tariff Schedule: Consequences for Vietnam

In an unexpected move, the administration of US President Donald Trump announced it would impose a “reciprocal tariff” rate of 46 percent on Vietnam’s imports. As developments related to this news unfold, we provide preliminary evaluations of the tariff plan’s impact on Vietnam’s trade and economy.

What Happened?

On April 2, 2025, President Trump shocked the world with his administration’s list of tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories. This list features two columns: one presenting the tariff rates enforced by other countries, and the other outlining the US’s “discounted reciprocal tariffs.” In essence, the first column serves as the basis for the reciprocal tariffs listed in the second column.

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Concerning Vietnam, the Trump administration claimed that US exports to the market are charged a 90 percent tariff rate. This assertion of high tariffs has already affected currency manipulation and various trade barriers.

Accordingly, the US plans to impose an exceptionally high reciprocal tariff rate of 46 percent on imports from Vietnam, scheduled to take effect on April 9. Upon examining the list, it becomes evident that Vietnam’s tariff rate is considerably higher than many of its export competitors, such as Bangladesh at 37 percent and Thailand at 36 percent. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s rate only trails Laos and Cambodia, which are at 48 and 49 percent, respectively.

*Note: The White House also announced that 95 other countries and territories will be subject to 10 percent tariffs, including the UK, Brazil, Singapore, Chile, Australia, Turkey, UAE, New Zealand, and Argentina.

US Report on Vietnam’s Tariff and Tax Regime

The 2025 National Trade Estimate (NTE), released on March 31 by the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR), reported that Vietnam’s average most-favored nation (MFN) applied tariff rate was 9.4 percent in 2023, including:

• 17.1 percent for agricultural products; and
• 8.1 percent for non-agricultural products.

The report also highlights that, although most US exports to Vietnam face tariffs of 15 percent or less, consumer-oriented food and agricultural products encounter higher rates. Vietnam has reportedly raised the MFN applied tariff rates on several products, including:

• Sweeteners (such as fructose and glucose);
• Confectionery products;
• Shelled walnuts;
• Ketchup and other tomato sauces;
• Inkjet printers;
• Soda ash;
• Stainless steel bars and rods.

In 2016, Vietnam’s Law 106/2016/QH13 altered the taxation of imported alcoholic beverages by shifting the special consumption tax base from the import price to the sales price received by the importer. This change is believed to have raised the tax burden for US importers compared to domestic producers.

Reciprocal Tariff Calculations

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According to the USTR, US reciprocal tariffs are based on the assumption that persistent trade deficits stem from a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors inhibiting trade from achieving balance. The US expects these tariffs to directly lower imports.

Nonetheless, data suggested a focus on America’s deficits versus bilateral trade when determining reciprocal rates.

US Trade Deficits with Vietnam

Examining the growth trend of US trade deficits with Vietnam over recent history, the figures have been steadily increasing since 2018, when the US-China trade war began. Companies are increasingly favoring Vietnam to diversify their production sources and mitigate risks associated with US trade conflicts with China.

The USTR reports that imports from Vietnam to the US reached US$136.6 billion in 2024, marking a 19 percent increase from 2023.

How Impactful is the New Tariff on Vietnam’s Trade?

According to data from Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT), the US has been Vietnam’s largest export market for many years. For the US, Vietnam stands as the 8th largest trading partner, contributing 4.13 percent of total export turnover to this market. In 2024, Vietnam exported goods worth US$119.5 billion to the US, representing 29.5 percent of the country’s total export turnover, with 16 categories of goods achieving an export turnover of over US$1 billion.

In the first two months of the year, the US remained Vietnam’s primary export market with an export turnover reaching US$19.56 billion, accounting for 30 percent of the total national export turnover and marking a 16.5 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

Given Vietnam’s heavy dependence on exports, the new tariffs will significantly impact trade flows. For more insights on the implications of tariffs on Vietnamese exports, refer to: Impact of Tariffs by President Trump on Vietnamese Exports.

Implications and Advisory for Businesses

In the wake of the latest development, Dan Martin, an International Business Advisor at Dezan Shira & Associates based in our Hanoi office, calls for calm and careful observation:

If implemented on the suggested scale, these tariffs would undoubtedly have a significant impact—particularly in industries such as textiles, footwear, and furniture, which are closely tied to the US market. Over the last two decades, these sectors have expanded steadily, and a 46 percent tariff would pressure profit margins, jobs, and order volumes. However, this is not a moment of crisis; it remains a developing scenario.

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It is essential to note that Vietnam has become significantly more diversified than it was before. The country has entered into free trade agreements with nearly all major global economies including the EU, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and nations across ASEAN. Southeast Asia and Europe are already driving robust export demand, and many companies are eager to expand their presence in these markets. However, we are not there yet. The April 9 deadline for enactment is approaching, but no decisions are final. Similar to previous tariff situations under the Trump administration, this current proposal can still be modified, postponed, or even withdrawn completely.

The Vietnamese government has promptly addressed US concerns by lowering tariffs on American goods and opening new sectors to US businesses. A high-level delegation, led by Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc, will visit Washington from April 6 to 14 for additional discussions.

At this juncture, our advice is simple: stay informed, remain calm, and avoid hasty judgments and decisions. Vietnam’s fundamental advantages remain intact: its solid fundamentals, regional access, and expanding trade relationships continue to position it as a crucial hub in global supply chains. We will diligently monitor the situation and provide guidance to our clients based on emerging developments.

Also read: Opportunities Amid Tariff Risks: Vietnam Seeks Trade Balance with the US