India’s Merger and Acquisition Forecast for 2025

India’s mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market surged in 2025, driven by domestic deals, new merger control rules, and active private equity. Read about sectors, regulations, and deal value trends.

India’s mergers and acquisitions (M&A) landscape in 2025 reflects a significant uptick in momentum. This rise is attributed to increased domestic consolidation, shifts in regulatory frameworks, and an evolving private equity environment. Notably, the first quarter of 2025 (January to March) yielded 669 M&A transactions amounting to an impressive US$29 billion—the highest quarterly value since Q3 2022, according to insights from Grant Thornton. Key sectors driving this activity include energy, financial services, and the digital domain.

M&A Trends and Volumes in India’s Domestic Sector

Excluding Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and Qualified Institutional Placements (QIPs), 636 deals were registered in Q1 2025, totaling US$24.4 billion—a 28% increase in volume and a 34% rise in value compared to Q4 2024. Year-over-year, the transaction volume surged by 43%, and the deal value increased by 17%, indicating strong investor confidence and a robust appetite for strategic investments.

Domestic M&A accounted for 72% of overall deal volumes. Inbound cross-border activity also reached a record high with 27 deals valued at US$2.7 billion. Among these, Wilmar International’s acquisition of the Adani Wilmar staples division for US$1.4 billion stood out as the largest M&A activity of the year thus far, while Bajaj Group’s acquisition of a 26% stake in Bajaj Allianz General and Life Insurance for US$2.7 billion highlighted major domestic consolidation efforts.

Source: Business Standard

(*Target M&A refers to potential M&A of suitable companies.)

The stark contrast between surging domestic deals and weak inbound activity underlines the strength of internal demand in the Indian market.

Sectoral Drivers of Deal Activity

The energy and power sector led M&A deal value in Q1 2025, accounting for US$7.3 billion—an astonishing 15-fold increase over the previous year. Following closely, the financial sector generated US$5.2 billion, up 36%, while the media and entertainment sector saw US$4.5 billion in transactions, reflecting a 15.5% increase.

Private equity-backed M&A activity soared to US$5.3 billion—a remarkable 227.6% increase. The primary drivers include green energy investments, infrastructure partnerships, and consolidations in IT services.

Additionally, several sectors are poised for M&A activity:

• AI and Deep-Tech: With the central government allocating US$1.25 billion for AI development, companies like Reliance are launching proprietary platforms, potentially leading to vertical integrations and strategic acquisitions throughout 2025.
• Blockchain and Crypto: Following significant acquisitions like CoinDCX’s purchase of BitOasis in 2024, deal-making in this realm is anticipated to expand.
• Insurance: Proposed hikes in Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) limits to 100% could stimulate consolidation and attract capital inflows.
• Space: The introduction of new automatic FDI rules for satellite and space activities positions this sector as an emerging focal point for M&A.

M&A Transactions Shaping 2025

India’s 2025 deal landscape features several notable domestic and cross-border transactions. Prominent M&A deals include:

• Bajaj Group–Bajaj Allianz General and Life Insurance: Acquisition of a 26% stake for US$2.7 billion, marking one of the largest consolidations in the insurance sector.
• Brookfield–ATC India Tower Corporation: Brookfield’s acquisition of the Indian arm of American Tower Corporation for US$2 billion, expanding its telecom infrastructure presence.
• Tata Consumer Products–Capital Foods: The acquisition of Capital Foods Pvt. Ltd. reinforces Tata’s FMCG brand portfolio.
• Wilmar International–Adani Wilmar’s Staples Business: This cross-border acquisition, valued at US$1.4 billion, reflects a strategic repositioning in retail staples.
• Adani Group: Engaged in multiple acquisitions across sectors such as green energy, cement, and data center assets.
• Hindustan Unilever–Minimalist: Hindustan Unilever’s acquisition of Minimalist, a personal care brand, is valued at US$342 million.
• AM Green Power B.V.–Greenko Energy Holdings: On March 11, 2025, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) approved the acquisition of a stake in Greenko Energy Holdings by AMG Green Power B.V., valued at US$1.5 billion.
• Apollo and BC Partners–GFL Environmental: This environmental sector transaction is expected to benefit Indian subsidiaries significantly, valued at US$8 billion.

These transactions illustrate a shift in sector diversification, as M&A activity expands beyond traditional IT and energy into areas like AI, Software as a Service (SaaS), and branded consumer technology.

Regulatory Changes Impacting M&A

India’s merger control regime underwent substantial reforms with the initiation of the Competition Commission of India (Combination) Regulations, 2024, and the Revised Exemption Rules. Key amendments include:

• Deal Value Threshold (DVT): Transactions exceeding INR 20 billion (US$238 million) now necessitate CCI clearance if the target has significant Indian operations.
• Expanded Scope of Scrutiny: The DVT now encompasses digital and pharmaceutical sector deals that previously escaped review due to asset/turnover exemptions.
• Revised Exemption Rules: New criteria, including access to commercially sensitive information and portfolio overlaps, now guide exemption eligibility for minority stakes.

These reforms align India’s merger regime with global standards while simultaneously increasing the complexity involved in transaction structuring and notification.

READ MORE: Regulatory Framework Governing Mergers and Acquisitions in India

M&A Outlook and Deal Structuring Considerations

As we look to the future, M&A deal values are anticipated to rise from US$110 billion in 2024 to between US$130 and US$160 billion in 2025. The Reserve Bank of India’s recent cut in the policy repo rate to 6.25%, with forecasts suggesting it could drop further to 5.75% by December 2025 (according to Fitch Ratings), may lead to reduced borrowing costs favorable for leveraged deals and consolidation. However, persistent geopolitical risks, the US’s reciprocal tariffs, and regulatory changes impacting India-EU trade deals remain critical factors to monitor.

Summary

India’s M&A market in 2025 is characterized by rising deal values, transformative regulatory changes, and resilient domestic consolidation. As new merger control thresholds come into effect and private equity continues to inject capital, strategic buyers must navigate opportunities while ensuring compliance. The momentum in sectors like energy, AI, crypto, and insurance adds to the increasingly dynamic landscape.

Dealmakers are encouraged to engage early with regulatory authorities, update compliance frameworks, and align structuring strategies with emerging regulations to maximize success in this evolving M&A environment.

(US$1 = INR 84.29)