Credit Growth in Vietnam: A Promising Outlook for 2025
Over the first three quarters of 2025, Vietnam’s banking sector has shown resilience, with a notable increase in credit growth projected between 18–20%. This optimistic forecast stems from a continuous expansion of banks’ outstanding loans, reflecting a strong economy and increasing demand for credit among consumers and businesses.
Current Trends in Loan Growth
According to recent data from 27 listed banks, customer lending surged by 15% compared to the end of 2024, reaching an impressive VNĐ13.6 quadrillion. This growth has been broad-based, with 22 banks reporting increases above 10%. Notably, state-owned banks continue to dominate the market:
- BIDV reported outstanding loans of over VNĐ2.23 quadrillion, marking an 8.8% increase.
- VietinBank followed with nearly VNĐ1.99 quadrillion, up 15.6%.
- Vietcombank also saw healthy growth, now sitting at VNĐ1.63 quadrillion.
In the joint-stock commercial bank sector, MB led with almost VNĐ931.5 trillion in loans, reflecting a remarkable growth of nearly 20% since the beginning of the year. This growth trajectory is largely attributed to a robust strategy targeting the retail and SME (small and medium-sized enterprises) sectors.
Competitive Dynamics Among Banks
The competitive landscape is evolving as banks strive to balance loan growth with profitability. VPBank, for instance, saw a notable increase of 29.4% in lending, while other major players like Techcombank and SHB also recorded impressive double-digit growth rates. Interestingly, NCB emerged as a standout performer, leading the sector with a staggering 33% growth in loans.
The trend reveals a narrowing divergence in growth rates among banks, indicating that many are reaching their credit ceilings. This shift is allowing banks to prioritize profitability as they enhance their portfolio performance while responding to the rising demand for investment.
Economic Challenges: Inflation and Exchange Rate Pressures
Economist Nguyễn Xuân Thành from the Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management highlighted that while credit growth is crucial, it must occur within a balanced economic strategy. To achieve a GDP growth target of at least 8% by 2025, credit growth needs to hover around 19–20%. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) must ensure supportive policies that channel credit toward productive investments to meet this target.
However, maintaining a low-interest-rate environment while addressing rising inflation and exchange rate volatility presents a complex challenge. Despite moderate inflation rates this year, forecasts suggest a potential uptick in inflation as external pressures mount, further complicated by a depreciation of the đồng.
Interest Rate Dynamics
Thành pointed to three significant factors fueling market interest rates: heightened inflation expectations, the depreciation of the đồng, and the disparity between credit growth and money supply expansion. Currently, Vietnam’s inflation rates are among the highest when compared to major economies, yet its interest rates remain the lowest, even beneath those of China. This challenge forces the SBV to tread a delicate line between fostering economic growth through low-interest rates while simultaneously curbing inflation and stabilizing the currency.
Long-term Growth Aspirations
Looking ahead, capital will continue to be a pivotal growth engine alongside crucial factors such as labor, science, institutional frameworks, and environmental considerations. Dr. Nguyễn Tú Anh, Director of Policy Research at VinUni University, emphasized that if Vietnam aspires to achieve a GDP growth rate of 10% by 2030—while keeping inflation around 3%—the nominal growth would need to approximate 13%. This translates to a necessity for credit expansion that is three percentage points faster than historical precedents.
In essence, Vietnam’s banking sector is at a significant crossroads, balancing robust loan demand and economic growth aspirations against the backdrop of inflationary pressures and currency stability. The decisions made by policymakers and financial institutions in the coming months will be critical as the country gears up for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.