Vietnam’s crude steel production in 2025 reaches a five-year peak.

Vietnam’s crude steel output in 2025 hit a milestone, reaching a record high of 24.7 million tons—a remarkable achievement that not only surpassed the previous peak in 2020 but also marked a significant 12% year-on-year increase. This pivotal moment for the steel sector was reported by the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), which highlighted that the country’s integrated steelmaking complexes are now well-equipped to supply materials for major infrastructure projects expected to unfold over the coming decade.

This impressive spike in production underscores the internal capabilities of Vietnam’s steel industry. The notable increase can be attributed to robust GDP growth, which soared to 8.02% in 2025—the highest in the 2021-2025 period. Industrial production also surged, marking a 9.73% growth rate, the strongest since 2020. Together, these economic indicators foreshadow a promising outlook for the steel sector.

Total steel sales for 2025 reached an impressive 24.1 million tons, representing a 12.9% increase from the previous year. Exports also played a key role, with figures climbing to 3.15 million tons—up 12.8% compared to 2024. The dynamic performance of Vietnam’s steel industry has been buoyed by favorable outcomes in anti-dumping cases and trade remedy reviews, particularly in significant markets like the EU, Canada, Australia, and India.

(Interestingly, many Vietnamese steel products faced anti-dumping duties set at 0% or at significantly lower margins than competitors under scrutiny. This advantageous positioning has allowed Vietnamese exporters to retain a competitive edge in global supply chains.)

Additionally, investigations have revealed that Vietnam’s steel industry does not function under non-market economy conditions, which marked a turning point in cases like the EU’s probe into hot-rolled coils and Canada’s investigation of steel strapping. The conclusions from these reviews could set a positive precedent for future cases, not only in steel but also across Vietnam’s broader export sector.

However, the industry is not without its challenges. The VSA has noted a variety of technical barriers, particularly in adapting to green standards like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and navigating the intricate web of rules of origin requirements. A pressing need exists for stronger collaboration between upstream and downstream producers to create sustainable supply chains.

Despite the growing awareness of the green transition, actual implementation has been lagging, especially regarding investments in technological upgrades and the establishment of eco-friendly supply chains. Furthermore, trade defense cases related to Vietnam’s steel exports are surging, introducing complexities like dual investigations that combine anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

These investigations can entail high legal costs and prolonged proceedings, with cases typically taking about a year to reach a preliminary conclusion. In some instances, outcomes have not lived up to expectations, resulting in steep anti-dumping duties being imposed.

Looking Ahead: Forecast for 2026

The VSA anticipates that Vietnam’s steel industry will continue its upward trajectory in 2026, projecting growth rates between 8% and 10%. Finished steel output is likely to reach around 33-34.5 million tons, with domestic consumption expected to hover around 26 million tons. This momentum is predicted to be spurred by the implementation of the Government’s Resolution No. 01/ND-CP, which outlines specific tasks and solutions aimed at supporting the socio-economic development plan for 2026. The national GDP target has been set at over 10%, with industrial growth aimed at more than 11%.

Increased public investment in infrastructure projects—such as expressways and airports—coupled with the recovery of the residential real estate market, is expected to further stimulate demand for steel. Major industrial projects are also slated for commissioning, adding to the anticipated growth in the sector.

As the steel industry moves towards meeting sustainability requirements, Vietnamese enterprises are increasingly adopting environmentally friendly production practices in alignment with global sustainable development strategies. This commitment resonates with the Government’s goals outlined at COP26 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

A noteworthy step in this direction was the groundbreaking of the Hoa Phat Dung Quat Rail and Special Steel Plant in late 2025, with a significant investment of VND10 trillion (around $385.66 million) and a designed capacity of 700,000 tons per year. Located in central Vietnam’s Quang Ngai province, the facility is outfitted with advanced technologies from Germany’s SMS Group and the UK’s Primetals Technologies, featuring a high-precision, flexible universal rolling mill.

This state-of-the-art plant marks the first “Made in Vietnam” establishment in Southeast Asia capable of producing steel rails specifically for high-speed railways. Anticipated to start production in 2027, Hoa Phat is positioned to become the region’s first manufacturer of this specialized steel, ready to cater to significant railway infrastructure projects.