Vietnam’s Apartment Inventory Could Increase by 33% Next Year: Expert Insights

Vietnam’s property market is gearing up for a notable transformation in 2025, with an anticipated influx of 35,000 to 40,000 new apartment units. This represents a significant 33% increase from the projected figures of 2024, according to Duong Thuy Dung, the executive director and head of professional services at CBRE Vietnam. The landscape of this vibrant sector is continuously evolving, reflecting the dynamic economic environment in the country.

In 2024 alone, the market is expected to have welcomed around 30,000 apartment units, with a striking 80% of this supply emerging from the bustling capital, Hanoi. This growth trend hints at a strategic recovery for the property market, although Dung cautions that a return to former peak levels will require substantial time and effort.

Despite the influx of new units, Dung notes that real estate prices are unlikely to decrease in the near future. Developers currently lack incentive to lower their selling prices, particularly as the market predominantly features high-end apartments, which constitute about 80% of the available supply. Dung estimates that property prices could escalate by 8-10% annually starting in 2025, marking a challenging landscape for potential homebuyers.

To address the continuing rise in real estate prices, Dung suggests fostering population dispersion and enhancing urban development strategies. A pertinent example is Ho Chi Minh City, where prices for apartments in prime districts soar between VND150-200 million ($5,890-$7,850) per square meter. In contrast, suburban areas offer a more manageable range of VND40-50 million ($1,570-$1,960) per square meter. This discrepancy highlights the potential for price adjustments should more residents be willing to relocate farther from central urban areas—a shift that Dung estimates may take another five to ten years.

Economist Dinh The Hien shares concerns regarding the rapid rise in property prices, which has increasingly put homeownership out of reach for many. He indicates that in 2012-2013, mid-range apartments in Ho Chi Minh City were priced between VND22-25 million ($864-$982) per square meter. Fast forward a decade, and those prices have more than doubled to VND50-65 million ($1,960-$2,553), while the average monthly wage for a senior office worker has seen only a modest increase from VND5 million ($196) to VND25 million ($982) during the same period.

While the broader economy shows signs of recovery, with robust growth in sectors such as production and business, cash flow into the real estate market remains limited. Hien observes that banks are reluctant to release new capital to real estate companies due to perceived high risks, leaving many developers scrambling for funds to complete their projects.

The Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) emphasizes that home prices have exhibited double-digit annual growth over the past decade, a trend that has resulted in the near-extinction of affordable apartments priced under VND25 million ($982) per square meter. This ongoing challenge reflects broader socioeconomic concerns in the country’s real estate landscape.