The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) finds itself at a crossroads following the appointment of General Secretary To Lam, who recently took on one of the country’s most powerful roles. Analysts suggest that To Lam’s tenure will be defined by the challenges he faces regarding political reform and institutional changes. Shortly after his election, To Lam emphasized the need for significant transformations within large national institutions, aiming to steer Vietnam toward becoming a “wealthy, democratic, just, and civilized country.”
This call for reform aligns with the recommendations made by World Bank experts in May 2022, who urged Vietnam to undertake institutional changes to meet its ambition of becoming an upper-middle-income nation by 2045. In pursuit of this goal, To Lam asserted his commitment to strengthening the Communist Party itself, which he views as essential for the country’s development.
To Lam’s rise to power came after the death of Nguyen Phu Trong, who held the position for 13 years, during which time he consolidated power within the party. This transition occurred amid a backdrop of unprecedented upheaval due to an anti-corruption campaign known as the “blazing furnace,” which led to the ousting of several high-ranking officials, including former President Vo Van Thuong, amid allegations of corruption.
Obstacles and Bottlenecks
For To Lam to genuinely address the issues facing Vietnam, voices like young activist Tran Anh Quan argue that radical changes are necessary, including the repeal of Article 4 of the Constitution. This article, established in 1992, designates the CPV as the nation’s leading political force, effectively eliminating political pluralism and constraining freedom of speech. Quan posits that abolishing Article 4 would foster political competition and enable citizens to hold leaders accountable based on performance.
“Whoever is good would be selected by the people, and whoever has a poor performance would be replaced,” he proclaimed, suggesting that this openness could clear the existing “obstacles and bottlenecks” impairing Vietnam’s development.
Meanwhile, economist Nguyen Huy Vu, based in Norway, shares similar sentiments, indicating that the party’s leadership now comprises some of the nation’s wealthiest citizens. He argues that the original principles of Marxism-Leninism no longer act as a unifying force among party members, complicating any potential for meaningful reform.
Furthermore, Vu highlights that Vietnam’s economy remains heavily dependent on unskilled labor and raw materials, emphasizing the restrictive nature of state-owned enterprises and the privileges they enjoy. He underscores that maintaining an environment where positions are routinely filled by Communist Party members thwarts capable individuals from contributing effectively to the nation’s governance.
Continuing Relationships
To Lam has already begun to navigate the international landscape, having visited Laos and Cambodia, and holding talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. His upcoming first official trip as General Secretary to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping further underscores the importance of international relations in his broader strategy.
However, speculation surrounds To Lam’s future. Sources indicate he may step down from the presidency in the coming months as Vietnam prepares for a National Assembly session in October. Despite this potential shift, he is expected to continue as General Secretary until 2026. At that time, all leadership positions within the party will be subject to reelection during the scheduled party congress.
Old Guidelines
Despite the discussions of reform, skepticism persists. A journalist based in Vietnam, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, expressed doubts about the authenticity of To Lam’s reform agenda. He noted that Lam’s statements appear to adhere closely to existing Marxist-Leninist principles, implying a lack of innovative ideas.
Moreover, calls for institutional change are not new. Previous leaders like former Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc and former National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue have publicly lamented difficulties in implementing reforms, often attributing failures to a disconnect between top officials and the lower levels of government—a sentiment that suggests any future reforms may face similar bureaucratic hurdles.