Vietnam’s Rice Export Landscape: November 2025 Overview
Export Figures and Trends
In November 2025, Vietnam exported a notable 320,000 tons of rice, generating $169.8 million in revenue, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. This figure adds to the cumulative rice exports for the first 11 months of the year, totaling 7.5 million tons and $3.83 billion. However, these numbers represent a concerning 11.5% drop in volume and an alarming 27.7% decline in export value compared to the same period in 2024. The data underlines significant stagnation within the global rice market, a situation exacerbated by changing dynamics in key markets, primarily the Philippines, which has historically been Vietnam’s largest rice consumer.
Decline in Export Markets
Throughout the early months of 2025, the Philippines maintained its position as Vietnam’s dominant rice market, commanding 39.8% of the total share. This enduring relationship faced turbulence, as the export value to the Philippines plummeted by 34.9%. This decline stands in stark contrast to the performance seen in other nations such as Ghana and Ivory Coast, where export value rose by 29.8% and a remarkable 79.8%, respectively. Notably, Bangladesh emerged as an unexpected champion among the top 15 markets, seeing its export value from Vietnam skyrocket by an astonishing 155.1 times during this period.
Average Export Prices and Market Forces
The average export price of Vietnamese rice during the first 11 months was $512.1 per ton, marking an 18.3% decrease from the previous year. This downturn in pricing is reflective of a broader global challenge characterized by reduced demand and intensified competition among rice-exporting nations. According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), rice prices stabilized in early December 2025, with 5% broken rice selling between $420 and $440 per ton and Jasmine rice priced at $447 to $451 per ton. The VFA has projected an overall 11.5% decrease in rice exports for 2025, largely attributable to the downturn in demand from the Philippine market.
The Impact of the Philippine Import Suspension
The most significant factor influencing Vietnam’s rice export figures is its relationship with the Philippines, which has recently extended its temporary suspension of rice imports until December 31, 2025. Initially implemented as a 60-day ban starting September 1, 2025, the decision aimed to support local farmers during their harvest. This suspension has led to a sharp drop in rice exports to the Philippines, a substantial market for Vietnamese rice producers.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported a striking 27.8% year-on-year decrease in farmgate rice prices, with prices plummeting to around 17.11 pesos per kilogram, and some regions reporting prices as low as 8 pesos per kilogram. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. attribute this decline to excessive rice imports earlier in the year, with the total reaching 3.5 million tons by the end of September—significantly exceeding the annual target. Since the liberalization of rice imports in 2019, the Philippines has faced challenges managing the influx of cheaper rice, leading to adverse effects on local market pricing.
Future Plans for Imports
While the extended import ban aimed to stabilize rice prices, it simultaneously depleted the national reserves significantly. In response, the Philippine government plans to reopen the import market in January 2026, anticipating a volume of around 300,000 tons. However, this import period will again be brief, pausing from February to April 2026 to safeguard domestic rice prices.
Starting January 1, 2026, the Philippines will implement a new flexible rice import tariff mechanism, allowing tariffs to fluctuate by 5 percentage points for every 5% change in international rice prices. The new tariffication mechanism will establish rates ranging from 15% to 35%, presenting a fresh layer of complexity for rice exporters navigating this evolving landscape.
Opportunities and Challenges Ahead
The VFA is optimistic about the potential reopening of the Philippine market in January 2026 as a short-term opportunity for Vietnamese rice exporters. However, this optimism is tempered by concerns regarding new tariff rates and the implications of an abbreviated import window, which may ultimately impact the competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses.
As Vietnam confronts ongoing global rice price fluctuations, it faces fierce competition from other major producers like Thailand and India. The inventory levels at the end of 2025, coupled with the beginning of the Winter-Spring harvest, are likely to further pressure Vietnamese rice prices in the early months of 2026, complicating the sector’s outlook as it navigates an uncertain market.