Vietnam’s Economic Resilience in 2025: Stability Amidst Global Challenges

Amid the uncertain currents of the global economy—with high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, growing protectionism, and weakened consumer demand—Vietnam has achieved notable economic stability in the first ten months of 2025. This accomplishment not only solidifies a platform for medium-term growth but also bolsters confidence among the business community and investors alike.

Sound Performance

During this period, Vietnam achieved inflation rates under 3.27% and managed to keep its exchange rate flexible, while foreign exchange reserves were reinforced by a trade surplus of $19.56 billion. The proactive and adaptable nature of the country’s monetary policy has been instrumental in stabilizing financial markets and propelling business recovery.

State budget revenues also reflect this trend, reaching VND 2,145 trillion ($82.5 billion), which surpasses full-year estimates by 9.1% and shows an impressive 28.5% increase from the same period last year. Public investment disbursement stood at 63.1% of the planned amount, marking a 27.8% increase year-on-year, thereby enhancing aggregate demand and employment across sectors.

The industrial sector remains a powerhouse, particularly in export-oriented manufacturing. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose by 9.2% compared to the same timeframe in 2024, with the manufacturing and processing sector experiencing a growth of 10.5%. Sectors such as electronics, computers, and textiles displayed noteworthy expansions, marking Vietnam’s burgeoning position in the global market.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October climbed to 54.5, the highest since July 2024, indicating robust improvements in manufacturing and processing. Business confidence surged to a 16-month high, reflecting an optimistic outlook among entrepreneurs.

Exports also flourished, totaling $391 billion in the first ten months—an increase of 16.2%. Specifically, the electronics and components group saw a remarkable 47.9% growth. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) enterprises contributed 75.9% of export turnover, underscoring their role as a critical anchor in the manufacturing sector.

Domestic consumption has bounced back, with total retail sales of goods and services rising by 9.2%. Excluding price factors, this represents a real growth of 7%, indicating a resurgence in consumer confidence after a period of restrained spending. The tourism sector is on the upswing, welcoming nearly 17.2 million international visitors—a 21.5% increase.

Uneven Recovery

Despite these encouraging indicators, the landscape is not devoid of challenges. The economic growth experienced in the first ten months illustrates a lack of broad recovery across various sectors. While credit growth reached 15.09% compared to the end of 2024, and 20.66% year-on-year, much of this increase was concentrated in trade and services rather than in manufacturing and innovation.

Many domestic enterprises continue to grapple with limited capital absorption capacity. Small and medium-sized enterprises face numerous barriers to accessing credit, including stringent collateral requirements and high borrowing costs. The disparity is evident: although newly-established enterprises surged by 19.7%, a staggering 105,400 businesses exited the market, revealing persistent difficulties in the private sector.

The real estate market, while showing signs of improvement in some areas, remains characterized by low liquidity and high inventory levels, raising concerns about potential non-performing loans. Unresolved legal issues have stalled many projects, perpetuating uncertainty in this crucial sector.

Furthermore, export growth heavily relies on FDI enterprises, with domestic private businesses not yet having established themselves as robust economic pillars.

From Stability to Reform

Despite the economic resilience exhibited thus far, Vietnam must now transition from simply maintaining stability to embracing institutional reforms that promote growth. The mantra for the future should be “Stability for resilience, Reform for growth,” emphasizing the need for innovation, market delegation, and enhanced trust.

Sustainable growth requires new drivers beyond the existing economic framework. In an environment where recovery momentum is fragile and resources remain underutilized, decisive policy action is essential to stimulate growth across businesses and communities.

First, maintaining macro-economic stability while instilling investment confidence is crucial. This entails managing interest rates within reasonable limits and flexibly steering the exchange rate. Clear policy signals must be communicated to enhance market expectations, particularly for the private sector.

Second, ongoing institutional reforms are necessary. This includes reducing bureaucratic red tape, empowering local authorities, and ensuring the protection of property rights and business freedoms—fundamental steps toward fostering a competitive and transparent investment environment.

Prioritizing the development of domestic capital markets is also vital. Reducing the economy’s reliance on bank credit and diversifying capital-raising channels—through bonds, investment funds, and green financial instruments—will lay a solid foundation for future stability.

Promoting innovation-driven growth should not be overlooked. Encouraging investments in technology, digital transformation, and high-quality human resource development should be prioritized, boosting domestic value-added exports.

Lastly, establishing a strategic development triangle that intertwines the green economy, digital economy, and knowledge economy is essential. This triad will help create a mutually reinforcing growth environment, enabling Vietnam to balance sustainable development with environmental protection while integrating more deeply into global value chains.

With these pillars connected and synchronized, Vietnam can forge a sustainable and self-reliant development path, positioning itself competitively in a rapidly changing world. The critical task ahead involves crafting institutions, policies, and strategies that maximize the contributions of each sector, shaping a new identity for the economy in the coming era.

(Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam is the former General Director of the General Statistics Office, now the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance.)