Rising Apartment Prices in Ho Chi Minh City: A Deep Dive into the Market Trends

Introduction

In recent months, the real estate landscape of Ho Chi Minh City has become increasingly complex, particularly in the apartment sector. As new supply remains tight and affordability worsens, buyers are increasingly looking beyond the city’s borders. Reports from industry leaders Savills and CBRE Vietnam shed light on the forces driving this dynamic and its implications for different segments of the market.

Current Market Overview

As of October 30, 2025, apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City are showing no signs of cooling down. Savills Vietnam’s Q3 market report revealed a lift in primary apartment supply to approximately 5,200 units, a year-on-year increase but a quarter-on-quarter decline. The supply primarily emanates from the eastern and western areas of the city, highlighting geographic preferences among buyers.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

In an environment where new launches fell short of meeting demand, approximately 2,000 units were added to the market from one new project and the subsequent phases of five others. This shortfall reflects a deep-rooted issue: the actual demand for apartments is outpacing this limited supply. The absorption rate during Q3 reached 51%, with overall transactions hitting 2,700 units, driven by stable end-user and investment demand.

Despite some discounts from large-scale projects attempting to clear inventory, both primary and secondary market prices continue to rise, underscoring a polarized market. Affordable housing options are increasingly shifting to neighboring provinces as residents seek more budget-friendly alternatives.

Shift to Neighboring Provinces

The data reveals a startling contrast: apartments priced below VND3 billion ($113,900) represented only 9% of total transactions in Ho Chi Minh City, whereas over 60% of transactions occurred in surrounding provinces. Binh Duong stands out, capturing a staggering 90% of affordable apartment sales in the southern region. This trend suggests a consumer base that is being systematically priced out of the city and forced to migrate toward more affordable areas.

Future Projections

Looking ahead, the future supply of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City is projected to remain limited, with Savills estimating around 60,000 new units from 80 projects by 2028. Even though market sentiment is showing signs of improvement and new supply is gradually returning, escalating prices threaten to put homeownership further out of reach for many.

Troy Griffiths, Deputy Managing Director of Savills Vietnam, highlights the ongoing challenge: while market engagement is rising, affordability remains a pressing concern for a substantial segment of buyers.

Challenges for Middle-Income Buyers

The current pricing structure for new apartments in Ho Chi Minh City ranges between VND80 million and VND120 million ($4,560) per square meter, with some projects even exceeding VND150 million ($5,700). Most of these properties are categorized as high-end or luxury offerings, leaving little for the middle-income demographic.

In Q3, around 2,500 new units were launched—an improvement from previous quarters but still insufficient to satiate demand. The effective disappearance of the mid-end segment has created a significant supply-demand imbalance, leaving many potential buyers in a precarious situation.

Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, a CBRE Vietnam expert, emphasizes the population overload in large cities like Ho Chi Minh City, which continually drives real housing demand. However, the focus has largely been on premium developments, further complicating homeownership for middle-income families and younger buyers.

Supply-Demand Mismatch

The mismatch between supply and demand in Ho Chi Minh City’s housing market has been starkly evident. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), points to a troubling trend: in 2020, only 163 affordable apartments were launched, accounting for a mere 1% of the total market supply. From 2021 to 2023, there were no new affordable housing projects initiated, with premium homes dominating about 70% of the new supply.

The situation remained unchanged in 2024, with no new mid-range houses entering the market. By the first half of 2025, the city launched only 3,353 new apartments, all classified as high-end. This alarming trend suggests a continuous drive for high-end developments at the expense of affordable housing.

Conclusion

Amidst this climate of rising prices and shifting demand, the key question remains: how can the housing market be recalibrated to address diverse community needs? While the market evolves, the importance of balancing affordability with growth cannot be overstated.