[SMM Analysis] Interpretation of October Steel Export Data
Steel export data from China provides a fascinating insight into global market dynamics. The recent report from SMM, utilizing figures from the General Administration of Customs, reveals that China’s total steel exports from January to October 2025 reached an impressive 109.653 million metric tons (mt), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.43%. This growth highlights the strong demand for Chinese steel across various global markets.
Ø By Country: The Philippines Shows Strong Performance, While Vietnam Remains Top in Negative Growth
A closer look at the figures illustrates the shifting dynamics of steel imports in Southeast Asia. The Philippines stands out with a notable cumulative year-on-year (YoY) increase of 1.424 million mt, which translates to a remarkable growth rate of 30.12%. This surge is largely attributed to the ongoing infrastructure initiatives, particularly the “Build, Build, Build” program, which is fueling construction activities and, consequently, the demand for steel products.
In October alone, steel billets accounted for 34% of all steel products exported to the Philippines, followed closely by coated and galvanized products making up 32%. The consistent monthly import levels of these products, hovering around 200,000-250,000 mt—and peaking over 300,000 mt in September—highlight the robust consumption patterns linked to real estate development and infrastructure projects.
The need for high-quality coated and galvanized steel sheets, essential for construction, has surged in response to the aggressive expansion of local manufacturing industries. Although local hot-dip galvanizing production lines have been established, their capacity is still limited compared to the soaring demand, necessitating a reliance on China to fill this gap. With the Philippines rapidly ramping up construction and manufacturing, it remains clear why China’s steel products are positioned to serve this market effectively.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM
While the Philippines shows promising growth, it’s important to recognize that Vietnam remains a significant player in the steel import landscape, albeit with challenges. The latest data shows that Vietnam leads in total volume, importing 8.15 million mt of steel, followed closely by South Korea with 6.51 million mt. This emphasizes that the primary consumer markets for Chinese steel continue to be concentrated in the Asian region, with particular strength observed in Southeast Asia.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM
Ø By Product: Special-shaped Sections’ Cumulative YoY Growth Turns to Decline; Steel Billet Growth Rate Slows Down
Turning to product categories, the overall export volume reflects varied performance among different steel types. In October 2025, China exported 10.9565 million mt of steel products, of which 1.1739 million mt were steel billets. Despite continued year-on-year growth in the sector, the growth rate for steel billets has shown signs of slowing, currently at 157%. This decline aligns with a broader trend observed since August, where total monthly exports have decreased, falling by 21.44% month-on-month from September.
Intriguingly, the cumulative volume of special-shaped sections has transitioned from growth to a decline of 2.38% year-on-year, indicating shifting preferences and perhaps oversupply in this specific category.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM
Examining the product distribution reveals that HRC (hot-rolled coil) continues to dominate Vietnam’s imports, making up nearly half of total steel imports from China. The combination of rising construction activity and manufacturing needs drives the demand for these products. However, the approach of anti-circumvention policies in November adds a layer of uncertainty, prompting ongoing observations from market participants. Most traders anticipate a potential pullback in total HRC exports in the coming year, which could significantly realign trade patterns.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, SMM
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